Japan fears an outbreak of power supply crisis this summer

On the 20th, Japan’s Kansai Electric Power Co., Ltd.’s No. 3 nuclear power unit in Takahama-machi, Fukui Prefecture, regularly inspected and stopped generating electricity. As a result, all of the company’s 11 nuclear power units stopped operating. Only two of the 54 nuclear units in Japan are still generating electricity. By the end of April, these two nuclear power units will also enter regular inspections, and all nuclear power plants in Japan will stall. When the power was regenerated to a remote and indefinite period, the administrative authority in the place where the nuclear power plant was located requested the government to introduce new safety standards, and the Japanese government was squandered by the issue of consumption tax. By this summer, nuclear power, which accounts for 30% of Japan's electricity, is probably not expected. This will have serious consequences.

First of all, there is no nuclear power, and it depends on thermal power. Japan's electricity supply is difficult to guarantee. According to Yagigi Masaru, president of Kansai Electric Power Co., Ltd., if a cold current does not occur in Kansai Electric Power Supply Zone, factories and households can save electricity by 10%, and they can handle it temporarily. However, if the cold current strikes, the demand for household heating will increase, or Aging thermal power generation equipment fails and large-scale power outages may occur. The calculation results show that about 25% of the power supply gap in the power supply area of ​​Kansai Electric Power Co., Ltd. during peak demand this summer. Prior to this, in order to ease power shortages in Japan, power companies used electricity to tide over each other's difficulties, but there was no nuclear power at the peak of electricity consumption this summer, and each power company would be stretched out. The government only launched a “power cut order” to allow enterprises and home users to add power. Big festival power. However, Fujitsu, Hitachi, Sharp, and Panasonic have all said that there is no room for power saving, and the energy saving measures of ordinary Japanese households are almost exhausted. In short, according to the Japanese media, Japan's power supply really encountered a "crisis."

Secondly, relying entirely on thermal power generation will lead to serious operating losses for power companies. It is estimated that firepower and thermal power all replace nuclear power, and the power company will increase fuel costs by 3 trillion yen annually. In 2011, the accounts of nine Japanese electric power companies from April to December showed that, except for the Okinawa power company without a nuclear power unit, eight power companies suffered losses. Of these, Tokyo Electric Power, Tohoku Electric Power, and Kansai Electric Power suffered the most losses, with 623 billion yen, 167.7 billion yen, and 118.1 billion yen respectively. In 2012, all nuclear power generating units stopped generating electricity and replaced it with thermal power generation. The loss will be even more serious. Over time, the unsustainable power companies will inevitably pass on costs. Increasing the price will definitely increase the company's burden and increase household expenses, which will have a negative impact on the Japanese economy.

Once again, the import of thermal power fuel became one of the culprits in the normalization of Japan’s trade deficit. Japan's Ministry of Finance released trade statistics data showing that in 2011 Japan had a trade deficit of 2,292.7 billion yen (1 yuan to 12 yen), which was Japan's first trade deficit since 1980 when it was affected by the second oil crisis. If the import of 3 trillion yen of fuel is normalized, the Japanese trade deficit may continue for a long time, causing the country to become a mirage.

What is more serious is that the import of fuel LNG for thermal power generation may be difficult to ensure. In 2011, 28.1% of Japan’s liquefied natural gas was imported from Middle East countries Qatar, Oman, and UAE. Currently, the relations between Europe, the United States, and Iran are tense. Once the situation is in danger, the world’s most important oil export channel, the Hormuz Strait, will be seriously affected. One-third of LNG imports will be hampered. In Japan, crude oil is a national strategic reserve energy source. According to the law, it is required to guarantee the use of 200 days. LNG is not a reserve for war preparations. There is no hard reserve index. Currently, inventory is only enough for 3 weeks to use it. Japan's thermal power will fall into crisis.

In order to solve the fuel problem of thermal power generation, Japanese companies such as Mitsubishi Corporation are actively acquiring the rights and interests of oil and gas fields in Canada and other countries, but it is far from being able to hydrolyze the thirst. In order to solve the urgent problem, the Japanese government hopes to discuss the import of LNG from the United States when the Japan-US summit meeting is held in the near future. But so far, the United States has used natural gas as a strategic material to limit exports, and to what extent it can meet Japan’s wishes. Hard to say.