As an important technology observer, Kevin Kelly's book "Out of Control" and "Inevitable" has a wide range of influence. He used to be the editor-in-chief of Wired magazine. He has traveled to China and the United States many times in recent years to express his views on technology trends.
At the 2017 Principal Entrepreneur Annual Conference hosted by Action Education, First Financial Journal interviewed Kevin Kelly exclusively. He believes that the impact of AI on unemployment is worthy of attention, but the view that "AI controls humans" is more concerned. Despite the powerful influence of technology companies, Kevin Kelly believes that technology oligarchy is significantly different from the oligarchs of the industrial age.
AI controls human possibilities like a meteor hitting the earthFirst Financial: How do you view the huge investment of technology giants such as Google, Microsoft and Alibaba in the AI ​​field in recent years?
Kevin Kelly: AI is a hot spot for the next decade. These tech giants should also pay great attention to this technology. At the same time, AI has a lot of data requirements, and only such companies have " Concerned about the ability of AI. As a result, technology giants have some natural advantage over most other companies, and they have the “fuel†that drives AI, big data.
First Finance: Does technology companies overestimate AI?
Kevin Kelly: They have enough cash flow to support the development of AI, they don't have to rely on it to make money, just as an expense. Unlike young start-ups, trying to find the commercial viability of AI is one of the advantages of these technology giants to develop AI. I think from a long-term perspective, AI is undervalued, not over-hyped.
First Finance: AI needs a lot of data support. You mentioned that in the AI ​​field, there will be 2 to 3 giant companies in the future. Then the AI ​​giant will be born from the technology companies that currently have big data, or will be born in the startup company. ?
Kevin Kelly: The first round of "AI competition" I think will be produced in the current top ten giants, such as Google, Facebook, Baidu, Tencent and so on. But if you can develop AI that doesn't rely on big data in the next phase, then you can say that AI technology has made revolutionary significant progress. Just as humans don't need big data to perceive, infants only need to look at a dozen cats and dogs to distinguish them, while machine learning currently requires millions of cats and dogs as examples. Identification.
First Finance: AI has attracted the attention of the business community and a lot of investment, but also caused some concerns. For example, if you are unemployed, would you like to ask your opinion?
Kevin Kelly: This question can be answered in two ways. One is the unemployment rate, and the other is the machine replacing humans. First of all, the possibility of human beings being controlled by AI is very small. Between zero and unlikely, it is like a meteor hitting the earth. Although there is a possibility, there is a possibility that some people are devoted to studying this phenomenon. Prevent it from happening further, but this does not mean that it is affected by this view in the process of daily life and thinking. Regarding the idea that AI subverts humanity, it does not need to be considered too much in policy making, investment, etc., because the probability of occurrence is extremely high and the impact of AI on unemployment rate is indeed a matter that needs to be considered at present. My point is that each job is made up of different aspects, some of which are efficiency-oriented. This part is more appropriate for AI, so everyone's work is more or less affected by AI. This does not mean that part of the work will disappear, but that these work will be supplemented by AI. There is still a part of the work that is not always efficient, such as innovation, scientific research, artistic creation, etc., which still needs more humans to complete.
First Finance: In this way, we should be more worried that AI leads to unemployment rather than AI to control humans, right?
Kevin Kelly: I don't think we should worry about the large-scale business situation. We should pay more attention to the issue of re-employment. Just like the process of farming to industrial transformation, some jobs are not simply disappearing, but have evolved. Even if some jobs disappear, there are more jobs. In terms of quantity, the new jobs will be higher than those that disappeared. Even if there is still a period of transition for some people, or a change from an agricultural society to an industrial society, a lot of new work is produced, but still Some people will not be able to adapt and lose their job opportunities. Let's talk about a large area, how to define large-scale unemployment? From a geographical point of view, any place where AI robots are distributed will result in a certain level of unemployment, but it does not mean that most people will lose their jobs. The popularity of AI will not lead to economic recession, but will promote prosperity.
First Finance: The development of AI will promote economic growth and thus promote employment. But in the process of transformation, some people will lose their jobs, and the process of re-employment for these people will be more painful. Can it be understood that the employment brought about by the new economic growth does not benefit the people who lost their jobs?
Kevin Kelly: It is true, but to the large scale mentioned in the question you just mentioned, I think that this size will not be particularly large in terms of the number of people. Every year, the United States will generate many new jobs and lose a lot of jobs. The job has always evolved in this way. From the perspective of the entire economy, dynamic changes are not easy to detect, but for individuals who have changed, they feel Of course it is obvious. In addition, some current analysis believes that AI will not bring enough new jobs, so the future employment environment will deteriorate, so I have different views. We don’t realize how many unexpected new technologies, including AI, will create new jobs. These demands will create new jobs, jobs will be created in this way, work comes from people’s new needs, and technology will create The needs that have been thought of, and these needs will exist for a long time once they are generated.
Technology oligarchs are different from industrial oligarchsFirst Financial: Apple was born in the 1970s, AOL in the 80s, Amazon and Google in the 1990s, Facebook after 2000, but not in the US or China in the last decade. The market value of the technology giant, does this mean that there is a trend that the "ruling power" of the above-mentioned technology giants is becoming more and more obvious and more and more difficult to be replaced?
Kevin Kelly: This is a good question, and there is also a phenomenon that, besides Apple, there have been no more successful consumer electronics companies like Apple in the past 40 years. Those mature companies have already occupied the market segmentation. At the time, the emergence of Apple was to fill a gap, and the above-mentioned technology giants all took the opportunity to fill the gap, and there is no such gap in consumer goods. In the future, these companies are difficult to classify. It is hard to say that they are consumer goods companies or others. AI may provide a big category, which accommodates 100 companies of various categories, and may grow a new ecology from this. .
First Finance: The dominance of the technology giant is hard to be weakened?
Kevin Kelly: I think the advantage of these companies comes from the network effect, which will create a monopoly situation, but this situation will not last long and will eventually be replaced by new things. Just like IBM, which used to be the best computer, it will be replaced by Microsoft, which is the main operating system. Microsoft is challenged by Google from the start of search engines. The goal of breaking Google’s “ruling†is to do social media. Like Facebook. How to break the future situation, the challenge may come from AI, but it is still not good. In any case, these companies have formed an ecology and reduced prices in the process of existence, so these so-called oligopolys have brought positive externalities to society, rather than monopolization in the industrial era.
First Finance: For the field of science and technology, is the trend of centralization becoming more and more obvious?
Kevin Kelly: If you look deeper, you will find that the number of small businesses in the field of technology has soared. It can be said that large companies are bigger and small businesses are more.
First Finance: One of your views is that the information platform behind the smartphone may be AR, VR, MR, etc. Why?
Kevin Kelly: In a nutshell, focusing on experience is one of the more obvious trends. The higher value is based on experience. Buying, downloading and sharing experiences is now a more valuable way.
First Financial: Why are there no successful cases for wearable devices?
Kevin Kelly: This is a very good question, but I still don't have a good point to answer this question. At present, my immature view may be that a lot of information is generated by wearable devices. There is currently no analysis tool that can make the above information meaningful. I think the missing element may be AI. Users can't directly translate and understand the information generated by wearable devices. They need to be analyzed and applied by technologies like AI. At present, this connection point has not been opened. My hope is that AI can handle the device.
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