What problems will robots bring to human employment, increase or decrease?

The double-sidedness of robot development has always been the topic of discussion among the world's major experts. The impact of the rapid development of robots on social employment has been deadlocked. Some people say that it will increase employment opportunities. Some people say that it will decrease. How do you think about it?

In 2015, the Chinese government proposed the development plan of “Made in China 2025”, which gave the robot an important development status. In 2016, the country proposed the “Robot Industry Development Plan”. The plan proposes that by 2020, robots will become an important support for the development of high-end manufacturing. In fact, the above plan is only in line with the new trend of the development of China's robot industry. Because the growth rate of industrial robots in China has been the highest in the world since 2013. Between 2010 and 2015, the density of manufacturing robots worldwide increased by 32%, while China increased by 230%, much higher than the world average. Based on this reality, today we have to think about the question of how the rapid development of robots will affect social employment.

The double-sidedness of robot development has always been the topic of discussion among the world's major experts. The impact of the rapid development of robots on social employment has been deadlocked. Some people say that it will increase employment opportunities. Some people say that it will decrease. How do you think about it?

Just as hundreds of years ago people were worried that the industrial revolution would make a large number of workers unemployed. Concerns about the substitution of robots for production labor will lead to a large number of people losing their jobs, which is very early. But history has proved that the new technological revolution has not led to the unemployment of a large number of workers, but to re-do the division of labor of social functions, so that the operation of the industry is more efficient. Under normal circumstances, the installation of a robot in an enterprise will inevitably reduce the demand for human resources. Under the dual advantages of improved production efficiency and reduced production costs, enterprises will be able to expand production scale and create more jobs. Therefore, robot replacements actually reduce the efficiency and added value of the job. Especially for those work environments where the factory environment is dirty, dangerous and labor intensive, there is a very real need for robots to replace people to complete tasks.

Since the industrial revolution, the development of the industrial sector has been to achieve technological innovation driven by economic value, thereby using advanced equipment and systems to reduce the demand for people. The application of each new technology reduces direct manual labor input during production. The successful experience of manufacturing tells us that technological innovation will create more jobs in the service industry. As far as the development of the robot industry is concerned, the large number of deployments and applications of robotic systems by enterprises have reduced the number of jobs with low operating technology, but at the same time they have created new jobs with high technology content and high returns, such as the need for people to take responsibility. Robot system maintenance and system programming, these new positions not only fully reflect the value of people, but also can provide people with higher returns on wages.

In other words, better product quality and lower manufacturing costs will drive companies to expand their markets and allow more people to buy products, thus stimulating market demand. Imagine if the car was built using technology 50 years ago, the reliability of the car will be reduced and very expensive, which will naturally affect sales opportunities and cause the entire market to be depressed. Look at the current manufacturing companies that produce mobile phones and tablets. If robots are not used to replace people for processing and assembly, the cumbersome assembly process will cost a lot of labor, and the resulting products may be unacceptable to the average consumer because of the high price, thus hindering the development of the entire market.

The idea that robots affect employment has always been widespread. But the Harvard Business Review found that if a job is fully automated, the position will eventually disappear. But if the process is only partial, then employment will actually increase because efficiency increases and may affect demand. Between 1995 and 2005, the IT revolution led to a 0.6% increase in labor productivity in Europe, the United States, and Japan, and an overall increase of 1%. This shows that if productivity increases enough to drive demand, the result may be increased employment.

According to a study released by the International Robot Federation in 2017, robot manufacturers will create 3.6 new jobs for each robot produced and sold. These positions are distributed in the fields of robot R&D, production, supporting services, quality management, sales, etc. New employment opportunities. This shows that there is no essential contradiction between “robot killing employment” and “robot creating employment”, but the former is concerned with shorter and more specific cases, while the latter has a broader perspective.

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