LED chip maker Li Jingjie, chairman of Jingyuan Optoelectronics (2448), said that the current LED order visibility is about one season, but if you look at the market heat and product trends, individuals believe that visibility can be reached by the end of the year. At present, the supply of LED chips in the second quarter should be the most tight. The supply and demand in the second quarter to the third quarter are expected to remain tight, but new capacity will be released in the second half of the year. LED supply will be slightly loose.
Li Bingjie said that everyone (industry) is now actively expanding production, and the market is worried that there may be a problem of oversupply of LEDs at the latest next year. However, the initial production of new capacity will usually not be very smooth. Even if the production process of new capacity will be smoothed down by the manufacturers next year, will LEDs be oversupplied, or continue to observe the second half of this year (the third quarter to the first Four seasons) The transmittance of LED-backlit LCDTV LCD TVs changes.
It is generally estimated that the penetration rate of LED-backlit LCDTV shipments will reach 15%-20% this year, and the penetration rate will be 30% next year. However, Li Bingjie believes that if the penetration rate is only about 5% at the beginning of this year, the penetration rate of LED-backlit LCDTV shipments will be at least 35% before the end of this year, and the annual penetration rate will reach the market target. If the penetration rate has already reached 35% at the end of this year, the average penetration rate will not be only 30% next year, at least 40%. Based on this estimation, the shipment penetration rate of LED-backlit LCDTV may be 50% at the end of next year. If the shipment penetration rate of LED-backlit LCDTVs progresses at this rate, LEDs will not be oversupplied until next year.
As for LED lighting, Li Bingjie maintained the original statement that LED lighting will grow rapidly in 2012, mainly because of the policy direction and implementation time. As the penetration rate of LED-backlit TVs develops at the above-mentioned speed, the penetration rate will reach 50%-60% or more by 2012, which will slow down the growth. At that time, the growth of LED lighting applications will just be connected, and the future of LED industry will be The development of three years is still optimistic.
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