After experiencing a big ups and downs before the Spring Festival, we still believe that the performance of the home appliance sector after the Spring Festival continues to outperform the market is a high probability event. In the process of systemic risk adjustment, home appliance faucets reflect better than market defensiveness. The unexpected increase in the renminbi has hit the export business of the home appliance industry, but the strong domestic demand for home appliances has made the home appliance faucet still have a good fundamental.
In January, the sales of air conditioners and water heaters exceeded expectations, and the growth of large kitchen appliances was better: 1) Although the market expectation of air conditioner retail sales has been low in view of the high base year, the air conditioner retail sales in January exceeded expectations. AVC retail monitoring, air-conditioning in January and offline, respectively, +147%, +14%. 2) AVC retail monitoring, water heaters in January and offline, respectively, +73%, +18%. 3) It is estimated that the preference for air-conditioning and water heater retailing is mainly due to the relatively low temperature in winter this year. 4) Large kitchen appliances also performed very well in January. Online retail sales were +132% year-on-year, and offline retailer package retail sales were +5% year-on-year.
In January, demand for refrigerators, washing machines, kitchen appliances and environmental cleaning products was weak.
However, benefiting from the increase in market concentration, the sales of home appliance faucets maintained a good trend.
For example, the online and offline retail sales of Haier washing machines in January were +67% and +4% respectively.
In February's adjustment, the valuation of home appliance faucets began to stand out. For example, Gree Electric and Midea Group only 13x, 17x 2018e P/E. Many of the previous fascinators with obvious valuations are currently under 30x 2018e P/E. In addition to the export market affected by exchange rate fluctuations, home appliance faucets still have good fundamental support, especially air-conditioning, water heater retail sales are better than expected, so there is reason to buy boldly when the stock price is lowered.
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