With the development of human society, people’s travel needs are increasing, and the number of cars is also increasing. The ensuing environmental protection issues and energy security issues are also imminent. In response, governments around the world are busy formulating a ban on the sale of fuel vehicles and encouraging the development of new energy vehicles. Major automobile manufacturers have responded to the call of the national government and started to transform their R&D and production of new energy automotive products. Cross-industry manufacturers have also joined the R&D and manufacturing of new energy vehicles.
The forms of new energy vehicles are various. Judging from the definition of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles refer to the use of unconventional vehicle fuels as a source of power for automobiles, or the use of conventional vehicle fuels, but adopting new types of vehicles. On-vehicle power devices, advanced technologies for the control and drive of integrated vehicles, and advanced technology principles, cars with new structures and new technologies. Therefore, the types and forms of new energy vehicles are various, including hybrid vehicles (HEV), pure electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell vehicles (FCEV), hydrogen engine vehicles, gas vehicles, alcohol ether vehicles, and so on.
From the current mainstream of the market, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and pure electric vehicles are the main research directions in the market today, and the question of which of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and pure electric vehicles is the future mastermind has never stopped. In the following, we analyze from various aspects, which of the hydrogen fuel cars and electric cars will have a greater chance of winning in the future.
The current development of the two major new energy vehicles in the mainstream
At present, of the two major development directions of new energy, the development of electric vehicles led by China is on the one hand. Under the trend of vigorously advocating new energy sources in the world, new energy vehicles have become a major opportunity for China from a large automobile country to a powerful automobile country. China has now become the world's largest electric vehicle market. In addition to domestic independent companies and start-up car companies that have joined the R&D and manufacturing of new energy vehicles, foreign auto giants have begun to deploy the Chinese market while transforming their local electric vehicles. On the other hand, hydrogen energy technologies in countries such as the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union that promote hydrogen energy have also entered the system implementation stage.
According to the latest goals set by Japan's new energy and industrial development organizations, the cruising range of Japan's hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to be extended by 1.5 times. By 2040, the number of hydrogen fuel cell models in Japan is expected to increase from the current 2,000 vehicles. To 300 to 6 million vehicles. In addition, many countries, including the British government, have also started to develop plans for the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. The United Kingdom plans to maintain the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet to 1.6 million by 2030 and bring its market share before 2050. It reaches 30% to 50%.
As the most widely distributed substance in the universe, hydrogen constitutes 75% of the mass of the universe. It is also called the ultimate energy source for human beings. Hydrogen can be abundantly present in the sea water on the earth. If all the hydrogen in seawater is extracted, it will be the earth. 9,000 times the heat of all fossil fuels. The hydrogen combustion efficiency is also very high. As long as 4% hydrogen is added to the gasoline, the internal combustion engine can save 40%. As a clean, efficient, safe and sustainable new energy source, its application forms involve all aspects of life, heating, cooking, power generation, and aircraft, especially in cars, trucks, buses, taxis, motorcycles, etc. And commercial ship applications have now become the focus.
As the development of electric vehicles may cause the recovery problem of used power batteries, there are already voices questioning that it is not time to develop electric vehicles. The development speed is slightly slower than the hydrogen energy of electric vehicles, and the main use of water conversion will not bring about the troubles like the recycling of used batteries. In addition, in terms of energy supplementation, electric vehicles currently require a lot of time to recharge the vehicles, and companies have to replace the batteries quickly by replacing the batteries in response to this problem. However, due to the replacement of batteries, it is necessary to build a large number of replacement stations. The current cost is also very limited. In terms of cruising range, most of the electric vehicles currently on the market are still facing the test of the course of their voyages. The cruising range of electric vehicles that perform better is mostly about 500 kilometers, most of which are within 500 kilometers, and some cars in Japan and South Korea The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle developed by the company has a cruising range of up to 1,000 kilometers and can be refueled within 3 minutes like a conventional fuel vehicle.
From these points of view, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles do have more development advantages than electric vehicles. However, the current situation is that the development speed of hydrogen fuel cells is indeed much lower than that of electric vehicles. The current cost of new energy vehicles for fuel cells is indeed very high, which can be seen from the previous subsidy policies of the country, with China’s subsidies for 2017. As an example of policy, the subsidy for a fuel cell vehicle in 2017 is as much as 200,000 yuan, while the subsidy for an electric vehicle is about 50,000 to 50,000, which is enough to see the current high cost of fuel cell vehicles.
Due to the widespread existence of hydrogen energy on the earth, this clean, pollution-free and abundant energy source is indeed promising in the future. The reasons for the rapid development of fuel cell vehicles at the current stage are the cost constraints. On the other hand, although hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have made significant progress in some key technologies, hydrogen fuel cells also need to face the construction of infrastructure hydrogenation. The problem of starting stations, starting vehicles under low-temperature conditions, and the discharge of water from the vehicle during driving, etc., restricts the large-scale industrialization of hydrogen vehicles.
In the long run, hydrogen energy infrastructure will be more cost-effective
Although the current cost of developing hydrogen energy is very high, analysis by professional organizations shows that in the long run, the construction of hydrogen energy infrastructure is more cost-effective than investing in charging stations.
When the hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) is scheduled to have a capacity of 100,000 vehicles, the total cost of the hydrogenation infrastructure is expected to be approximately 450 million euros. The deployment of a battery electric vehicle (BEV) of the same size requires a charging station cost of approximately 310 million euros. However, due to the relative concentration of hydrogen refueling stations, the cost of hydrogen energy infrastructure is even lower when more vehicles are deployed: once 1 million fuel cell vehicles are on the road, the total cost of hydrogen energy infrastructure is about 1.9 billion. The euro, while the battery charging infrastructure costs up to 2.8 billion euros. In the process of converting the surplus power into 100% green hydrogen, the cost of hydrogen may become more expensive because if the storage battery is used, a large-scale storage facility needs to be installed. When the market penetration of hydrogen fuel cells or pure electric vehicles reaches 20 million vehicles, the total investment in charging infrastructure will reach about 51 billion euros, while the corresponding cost of hydrogenation infrastructure costs only 40 billion euros.
Therefore, in the long run, the development cost of electric vehicles is actually higher than that of hydrogen. When developing 1 million new energy vehicles, the input cost of hydrogen energy infrastructure is cheaper. From a full range of considerations, whether it is a hydrogen-fueled vehicle or an electric vehicle, the purpose of its development is to achieve low carbon environmental protection and to find alternative energy sources for future travel. The development of electric vehicles may require a large amount of electricity sources, and the power sources may also bring more grid pressure to the grid. The development of hydrogen energy requires more cost input to obtain 100% of green hydrogen.
Hydrogen fuel cell car PK electric car, in the end who is better in the end? To sum up, whether it is the development of electric vehicles, and then slowly develop hydrogen fuel cell vehicles? Or is it really true that some voices are skeptical that they should not develop electric vehicles vigorously and should pay attention to the development of hydrogen energy? Or is it both? At present, what we have to do is to first solve the problems in these development processes before we can decide which one is more in line with the future direction of development.
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