On September 7, Xue Jing, director of the Statistical Department of the China Electricity Council, revealed at the Asia-Pacific Coal Market Summit in 2011 that the lack of water and electricity in August resulted in large-scale thermal power and rapid growth. “But the electricity consumption of the whole society is slowing down and tends to Slow speed is very fast."
Earlier, the data released by the CEC showed that the electricity consumption of the entire society in July increased by 11.8% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points slower than that in June. “In the third quarter, this was a peak of electricity use. However, due to climate problems, hydropower problems and coal shortages, it did not rise. Power consumption in Guizhou, Guangxi, and other places fell significantly over the same period of last year.†Xue Jing said, “The overall supply and demand situation in the second half of the year was skewed. Tight, especially in the winter, power shortages in the first quarter of this year will re-emerge."
In August, Xue Jing, a national hydropower producer, said that from the latest statistics, the situation of unsatisfactory hydropower output has spread from the local area to the entire country. “August hydropower was relatively dry in the country, and even northeast and Qinghai were somewhat dry.†Xue Jing emphasized that “Hydropower has experienced a national dry season during the wet season that has never existed before.â€
The electricity production situation from January to July this year shows that after the second quarter, the overall water supply situation in the country was generally dry and the hydropower production was very severe. In July, the hydropower reduction area further expanded. Among them, Jiangxi in central China fell by 40.7% year-on-year, Hubei and Hunan dropped by more than 20%; Fujian in East China fell by 49.2%, Zhejiang dropped by 25.7%; Guangdong in southern China dropped by 43.2%, Guizhou dropped by 28.8%, and Guangxi dropped by 24.8% ; Qinghai in the northwest fell by 15.3%, and Liaoning in the northeast fell by 45.2%.
“In this case, the power supply and demand relationship cannot be balanced,†said Xue Jing.
In August, two provinces and autonomous regions of Guangxi and Guizhou announced the entry of a red-preemptive state at the highest level of power shortage. Among them, Guangxi suffered the most severe power shortage in 20 years and thousands of companies were forced to close.
Gu Nanfeng, deputy chief engineer of Guangxi Power Grid Company, stated that the Hongshui River, one of the main rivers in Guangxi, had a water level of 366 meters in July and August last year. By August this year, the water level was 335 meters, a drop of 31 meters. The hydropower installed capacity in Guangxi is more than 8 million kilowatts. From July this year, the hydropower generation capacity is only 2 million kilowatts, and the worst case is as low as 1.7 million kilowatts, which is a decrease of 3.5 million kilowatts from the same period last year.
As of the end of July, the hydropower storage capacity in the three basins of the Red River, Wujiang and Lancang Rivers in the China Southern Power Grid region was only 6.8 billion kwh, which was only 39% of the same period of last year. Especially since July, the water in the Hongshui River and the Wujiang River Basin has been more than 70% dry, which is the lowest level since the hydrological records. At present, China Southern Power Grid has a total of 56.27 million kilowatts of hydropower installed capacity, with an average adjustable output of only 21.3 million kilowatts, a decrease of 10.7 million kilowatts from the beginning of the year.
The growth rate of thermal power generation exceeds July. "Because of insufficient hydropower output, there was a large amount of thermal power in July." Xue Jing said that in July, there were 9 provinces with a year-on-year increase in thermal power generation by over 40%, namely Hubei and Ningxia. Chongqing, Hunan, Sichuan, Fujian, Guangxi, Gansu, and Guizhou. Among them, the growth rate of thermal power generation in Hubei reached as high as 77.5%, and 68.7% in Ningxia.
“The growth rate of thermal power generation in August continued this trend. The growth rate of thermal power in these provinces was higher than in July.†Xue Jing pointed out that this is why the overall growth rate of electricity consumption slows down, while the demand for thermal coal is still at The reason for the tension is that "electric coal consumption still remains in a very high-speed growth process."
At the beginning of May, CEC once pointed out in the "2011 National Analysis of Electricity Supply and Demand and Economic Operation Situation and Forecasting Report" that there will be a gap of 30 million kilowatts at the peak of electricity use in 2011. "At present, it seems that it will exceed." Xue Jing said.
Xue Jing said that the high temperature problems in East China and North China were thought to have eased with the changes in the climate, so that the national electricity gap dropped to about 25-20 million kilowatts. However, I did not expect that the hydroelectricity in the southern region would have been so severe since August, which eventually exacerbated the overall difficulties.
She pointed out that the electricity gap of over 10 million kilowatts in the southern region is very abnormal. "In general, the gap in the southern region is about 9 million kilowatts, and it appears in the winter." Xue Jing said: "This summer, there was such a situation that it was unexpected."
According to the prediction of CEC, the electricity consumption for this year will increase by about 12% year-on-year, of which thermal power will increase by about 15% year-on-year. “The growth rate of thermal power consumption is much higher than the electricity consumption of the whole society, which is a test for the supply of coal.†Xue Jing said, “The demand for electricity consumption slightly increased in the second half of the year, and the growth rate of thermal power was relatively high. The growth in coal demand is greater than in the first half of the year and it is expected that the supply and demand of coal will be tight."
Next year, electricity consumption will fall by 1-2%. From January to July of this year, the monthly growth of electricity consumption will have a slight fluctuation. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is higher than that of the maximum electricity load. “In July, the growth rate of electricity consumption was 11.8%, and the highest growth rate of electricity load was 10.24%.†Xue Jing said: “This phenomenon was more prominent in August, and it has been unable to determine the power supply and demand relationship with the highest electricity load.â€
Judging from the electricity consumption situation in July, in the four high-energy-consuming industries that accounted for 32% of the installed capacity of the power industry, the electricity consumption in the chemical industry was at the highest level in history, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, which was the highest increase since April 2010. Rapidly, the cumulative growth rate of electricity consumption in the chemical industry was accelerated month by month; the electricity consumption of the building materials industry has been maintaining the highest growth rate since the financial crisis, but the monthly electricity consumption has dropped for the second consecutive month, and the momentum for continued growth has weakened; The ferrous metal smelting industry has used almost the same amount of electricity for each month since the beginning of this year, but it has witnessed a month-on-month decline in July; the non-ferrous metal smelting industry has used more than 30 billion kWh in 2 months, an increase of 8% year-on-year. increase.
Xue Jing pointed out that the steel industry is the largest power consumption industry in the second and third quarters, but it is estimated that the slowdown in production, consolidation of the industry, and the new round of energy conservation and emission reduction actions will limit the growth of electricity demand in the fourth quarter. .
"It is expected that the electricity consumption demand will slow down this and next two years, but according to our latest research results, after the consolidation of electricity demand after 2013, it will also rebound." Xue Jing believes that the magnitude of recovery depends on the structural reforms during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. The implementation of the reform of electricity tariffs and the implementation of electricity price reforms are driven by the economic pull of the eastern region and the pull of resources in the western regions.
"The power consumption of the next year will definitely have to come down. The western region will be 1-2% on the basis of this year, because its structural adjustment is very large; and whether the eastern region can be down right away, it may require a process." Xue Jing said that in any case, there will be a 1-2 percentage point drop.
Earlier, the data released by the CEC showed that the electricity consumption of the entire society in July increased by 11.8% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points slower than that in June. “In the third quarter, this was a peak of electricity use. However, due to climate problems, hydropower problems and coal shortages, it did not rise. Power consumption in Guizhou, Guangxi, and other places fell significantly over the same period of last year.†Xue Jing said, “The overall supply and demand situation in the second half of the year was skewed. Tight, especially in the winter, power shortages in the first quarter of this year will re-emerge."
In August, Xue Jing, a national hydropower producer, said that from the latest statistics, the situation of unsatisfactory hydropower output has spread from the local area to the entire country. “August hydropower was relatively dry in the country, and even northeast and Qinghai were somewhat dry.†Xue Jing emphasized that “Hydropower has experienced a national dry season during the wet season that has never existed before.â€
The electricity production situation from January to July this year shows that after the second quarter, the overall water supply situation in the country was generally dry and the hydropower production was very severe. In July, the hydropower reduction area further expanded. Among them, Jiangxi in central China fell by 40.7% year-on-year, Hubei and Hunan dropped by more than 20%; Fujian in East China fell by 49.2%, Zhejiang dropped by 25.7%; Guangdong in southern China dropped by 43.2%, Guizhou dropped by 28.8%, and Guangxi dropped by 24.8% ; Qinghai in the northwest fell by 15.3%, and Liaoning in the northeast fell by 45.2%.
“In this case, the power supply and demand relationship cannot be balanced,†said Xue Jing.
In August, two provinces and autonomous regions of Guangxi and Guizhou announced the entry of a red-preemptive state at the highest level of power shortage. Among them, Guangxi suffered the most severe power shortage in 20 years and thousands of companies were forced to close.
Gu Nanfeng, deputy chief engineer of Guangxi Power Grid Company, stated that the Hongshui River, one of the main rivers in Guangxi, had a water level of 366 meters in July and August last year. By August this year, the water level was 335 meters, a drop of 31 meters. The hydropower installed capacity in Guangxi is more than 8 million kilowatts. From July this year, the hydropower generation capacity is only 2 million kilowatts, and the worst case is as low as 1.7 million kilowatts, which is a decrease of 3.5 million kilowatts from the same period last year.
As of the end of July, the hydropower storage capacity in the three basins of the Red River, Wujiang and Lancang Rivers in the China Southern Power Grid region was only 6.8 billion kwh, which was only 39% of the same period of last year. Especially since July, the water in the Hongshui River and the Wujiang River Basin has been more than 70% dry, which is the lowest level since the hydrological records. At present, China Southern Power Grid has a total of 56.27 million kilowatts of hydropower installed capacity, with an average adjustable output of only 21.3 million kilowatts, a decrease of 10.7 million kilowatts from the beginning of the year.
The growth rate of thermal power generation exceeds July. "Because of insufficient hydropower output, there was a large amount of thermal power in July." Xue Jing said that in July, there were 9 provinces with a year-on-year increase in thermal power generation by over 40%, namely Hubei and Ningxia. Chongqing, Hunan, Sichuan, Fujian, Guangxi, Gansu, and Guizhou. Among them, the growth rate of thermal power generation in Hubei reached as high as 77.5%, and 68.7% in Ningxia.
“The growth rate of thermal power generation in August continued this trend. The growth rate of thermal power in these provinces was higher than in July.†Xue Jing pointed out that this is why the overall growth rate of electricity consumption slows down, while the demand for thermal coal is still at The reason for the tension is that "electric coal consumption still remains in a very high-speed growth process."
At the beginning of May, CEC once pointed out in the "2011 National Analysis of Electricity Supply and Demand and Economic Operation Situation and Forecasting Report" that there will be a gap of 30 million kilowatts at the peak of electricity use in 2011. "At present, it seems that it will exceed." Xue Jing said.
Xue Jing said that the high temperature problems in East China and North China were thought to have eased with the changes in the climate, so that the national electricity gap dropped to about 25-20 million kilowatts. However, I did not expect that the hydroelectricity in the southern region would have been so severe since August, which eventually exacerbated the overall difficulties.
She pointed out that the electricity gap of over 10 million kilowatts in the southern region is very abnormal. "In general, the gap in the southern region is about 9 million kilowatts, and it appears in the winter." Xue Jing said: "This summer, there was such a situation that it was unexpected."
According to the prediction of CEC, the electricity consumption for this year will increase by about 12% year-on-year, of which thermal power will increase by about 15% year-on-year. “The growth rate of thermal power consumption is much higher than the electricity consumption of the whole society, which is a test for the supply of coal.†Xue Jing said, “The demand for electricity consumption slightly increased in the second half of the year, and the growth rate of thermal power was relatively high. The growth in coal demand is greater than in the first half of the year and it is expected that the supply and demand of coal will be tight."
Next year, electricity consumption will fall by 1-2%. From January to July of this year, the monthly growth of electricity consumption will have a slight fluctuation. The growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society is higher than that of the maximum electricity load. “In July, the growth rate of electricity consumption was 11.8%, and the highest growth rate of electricity load was 10.24%.†Xue Jing said: “This phenomenon was more prominent in August, and it has been unable to determine the power supply and demand relationship with the highest electricity load.â€
Judging from the electricity consumption situation in July, in the four high-energy-consuming industries that accounted for 32% of the installed capacity of the power industry, the electricity consumption in the chemical industry was at the highest level in history, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, which was the highest increase since April 2010. Rapidly, the cumulative growth rate of electricity consumption in the chemical industry was accelerated month by month; the electricity consumption of the building materials industry has been maintaining the highest growth rate since the financial crisis, but the monthly electricity consumption has dropped for the second consecutive month, and the momentum for continued growth has weakened; The ferrous metal smelting industry has used almost the same amount of electricity for each month since the beginning of this year, but it has witnessed a month-on-month decline in July; the non-ferrous metal smelting industry has used more than 30 billion kWh in 2 months, an increase of 8% year-on-year. increase.
Xue Jing pointed out that the steel industry is the largest power consumption industry in the second and third quarters, but it is estimated that the slowdown in production, consolidation of the industry, and the new round of energy conservation and emission reduction actions will limit the growth of electricity demand in the fourth quarter. .
"It is expected that the electricity consumption demand will slow down this and next two years, but according to our latest research results, after the consolidation of electricity demand after 2013, it will also rebound." Xue Jing believes that the magnitude of recovery depends on the structural reforms during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. The implementation of the reform of electricity tariffs and the implementation of electricity price reforms are driven by the economic pull of the eastern region and the pull of resources in the western regions.
"The power consumption of the next year will definitely have to come down. The western region will be 1-2% on the basis of this year, because its structural adjustment is very large; and whether the eastern region can be down right away, it may require a process." Xue Jing said that in any case, there will be a 1-2 percentage point drop.
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