In recent years, artificial intelligence has received more and more attention. At the beginning of the 2017 New Year, Google Master won 60 consecutive games in the Go game, winning many of the top human masters. In the fourth season of Jiangsu Satellite TV's "Best Brain", the stunning appearance of Baidu's face recognition technology left a deep impression on many viewers. Artificial intelligence is essentially an extension of human intelligence, using computers to simulate human thinking. The rapid development of artificial intelligence is not a gimmick, it will greatly promote the development of productivity, and have a decisive impact on labor, employment and even social systems.
In the past five years, artificial intelligence has progressed more than the sum of the previous 50 years, because the artificial intelligence algorithm has made a major breakthrough. For example, Chinese speech recognition has been considered an insurmountable obstacle. In 2002, the professor of the Department of Automation of the University of Science and Technology of China once admitted to the author that although his team was in the field of research, he had not found a clue to the efficient algorithm for speech recognition; in other words, it was not clear at the time. What mechanism does man understand and speak? In just over a decade, deep learning based on neural networks has solved the doubts of professors in the past. The Chinese speech recognition rate of the input method developed by Keda Xunfei reached 97%, which is almost the same as real people.
Daimler's self-driving trucks were tested on the US highway in Nevada. A revolution in the transportation industry is coming.
Compared with the huge impact of artificial intelligence in other fields, Chinese speech recognition can only be regarded as a small skill. For example, autonomous driving technology is about to set off a revolution in the transportation industry. The automatic driving system does not sleep, distract, does not need rest, and does not affect things. It is foreseeable that a mature autonomous driving system will far exceed the reliability of traditional drivers. US car company Tesla is temporarily leading the way in autonomous driving technology, but Chinese car companies such as Jianghuai Automobile are also unwilling to catch up.
What does mature autopilot technology mean? Once the passenger gets in the car, just enter an address and the car will automatically pull the passenger to the designated location with the assistance of satellite navigation. At that time, China's 2.6 million taxi drivers [1] and the US 234,000 taxi drivers [2] will face unemployment risks, and "money money" will always be a historical term. Autopilot is about to take away the taxi driver’s job. There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the United States. If the technical support staff is also counted, the number of related truckloaders has reached 8.7 million [3]. In China, this group has as many as 30 million people, and one in every 45 Chinese people is running and transporting. Daimler's self-driving trucks have been on the road test in 2015 [4]. From the progress of the development of high-tech, the self-driving trucks are mass-produced within a few years. What should tens of millions of truck operators do to do then?
Dajiang Innovation recently launched the MG-1S agricultural plant protection drone, and the pesticides are more beautiful than others. It won't take long for the crops to get the wind out of artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence is not only subverting traditional transportation, but also subverting agricultural production methods that have lasted for thousands of years. In the near future, farmers will no longer need farmers to roll up their trousers and work in the busy season. Several agricultural workers can finish things by knocking on computers. This is not an illusion that the brain is wide open, and research in this area has actually begun. In 2011, China Academy of Agricultural Mechanization Sciences completed a significant agricultural machinery automatic navigation experiment [5]: a rice transplanter equipped with an automatic control system to obtain vehicle attitude information based on GPS and vehicle sensors to achieve automatic navigation and ground steering . The test results show that the automatic rice transplanter can walk in the field according to the preset path and can meet the precision requirements of the transplanting. The success of this research means that automated field operations are technically feasible and can be promoted as long as the cost of use is reduced. The technology of spraying pesticides on drones is even more mature [6]: Compared with manual spraying, drones can reduce the amount of pesticides by about 20%, and there is no need to consider the risk of pesticide poisoning. At the end of November 2016, DJI Innovation launched the advanced MG-1S agricultural plant protection drone, which made the flight operation more convenient and stable, making the pesticide spraying more precise and efficient, and fully entered the practical stage.
It may not be long before we can see that unmanned agricultural machinery and drones are tirelessly busy in the fields, and the planning of the field management is given to the computer with the expert system [7]: the sensors distributed in the field will soil Real-time data such as humidity, soil chemical composition, temperature, and light intensity are transmitted to the computer, and then the expert system automatically determines which field management measures to take through the algorithm. The amount of water used for irrigation, the amount of fertilizer applied, and the time of optimal picking are all determined by an expert system that integrates vast amounts of knowledge and data. Its precise management level makes it easy for farming experts who have worked for a lifetime. When artificial intelligence is used to automate agriculture, what should the rural population who is forced to take off the “farmers†hat to do?
As mentioned above, artificial intelligence will eliminate the dependence of many industries on labor and release a large labor force. How should the former driver who left the cab, the former peasant who left the land, and other large populations who had been squandered by artificial intelligence to maintain their own survival? This is the challenge that artificial intelligence brings to social governance. Historically, technological advances will continue to eliminate old jobs and create new jobs. For example, the popularity of cars has eliminated the employment of rickshaw drivers, but created jobs for taxi drivers. However, compared with historical technological advances, there are two major differences in the impact of artificial intelligence on employment.
The first is the difference in the number of jobs. Artificial intelligence affects hundreds of thousands of jobs, but tens of millions or even hundreds of millions of jobs. In China alone, artificial intelligence will affect 30 million truck operators and more than 200 million rural laborers. Historically, technological advances have gradually released labor from old jobs for quite some time. For example, in the late 19th century, it took almost three or four decades for the steam ship to completely replace the big sailboat, and more time than a generation of sailors to transfer to new jobs. However, artificial intelligence is likely to release an unprecedented amount of labor in a very short period of time, creating an unprecedented change.
The second is the difference in the quality of employment. The labor force released from the old post by technological advancement needs to learn new skills in order to take a new position. Historically, the process of learning new skills in the workforce has not been complicated, such as sailors who have become sailboats for steamboats. Therefore, the changes in jobs brought about by technological progress are relatively easy to bear. However, artificial intelligence will eliminate low-end jobs full of repetitive labor at an extremely fast rate. By October 2016, Apple's main business, Foxconn, has deployed 40,000 robots in mainland China factories to replace the assembly line workers [8]. . In the foreseeable future, artificial intelligence will eventually lead to the disappearance of traditional labor-intensive industries. And scientific workers, corporate R&D personnel and other creative jobs, as well as lawyers, doctors and other highly skilled jobs, are relatively difficult to be replaced by artificial intelligence, and will continue to exist for a long time.
So the problem is highlighted:
A large number of low-end jobs replaced by artificial intelligence release a less educated workforce.
High-end jobs with artificial intelligence that are not easy to challenge have high barriers to entry, and are almost piled up with academic qualifications or practical experience.
New jobs created by artificial intelligence, such as those related to the maintenance and upgrading of artificial intelligence, must be based on higher education.
This means that a large amount of labor released by artificial intelligence in a short period of time will not easily enter other jobs and be naturally digested by society. Let Foxconn's assembly line workers turn to IT engineers, I am afraid it is no easier than taking a scholar. Even if these laborers are willing to learn new skills through hard work, they will face another huge difficulty - the cost of education.
Capitalism has turned education into a naked business, and high-quality educational resources have to be purchased with large sums of money, which has been carried out in the United States. Tuition fees at prestigious universities in the United States are generally not low, and each credit is charged at more than $1,000. We make a conservative estimate, at a cost of $1,000 per credit, a minimum of 30 credits for a master's degree, and a minimum of $30,000 for tuition. The involuntary unemployed labor force is already embarrassing, and it is not an exaggeration to let it pay 30,000 US dollars in exchange for the possibility of re-employment.
This kind of education system means that the cost of regaining labor skills is extremely high, which inevitably leads to the situation that many people are unable to receive education because of poverty and cannot acquire new labor skills; lack of labor skills makes them fall into long-term unemployment and become more dramatic. Poverty. When developed artificial intelligence eliminated low-end jobs, the large amount of labor that was released was afraid that even the value of “exploited surplus value†would be lost, and it would be isolated from the job market for a long time. If a large number of working-age people are subjected to such “marginalizationâ€, can society be harmonious?
The huge impact of artificial intelligence on labor and employment will further constitute an impact on the macro economy. Famous Indian writer Kerry Hill. Qiandal (1914~1977) discussed this issue in the novel "The Long Tree". The fantasy of "The Long Tree" is more like a fable story with some realism [9]:
The protagonist of the novel entered the underground with a long tree in his backyard and reached a strange city. The city is full of automated services - automatic driving, automatic refueling, automatic cooking and automatic checkouts to dazzle the protagonist. (I have to admire the writer's rich imagination and move things that have appeared decades later.) But there is no smoke in this big city. Finally, the protagonist finally saw a teenager - the only resident of the city.
The teenager tells the reason why the city is deserted: the father of the teenager was the owner of the city and the owner of the hiring tens of thousands of workers. He got a powerful new machine, not the top one but the work of a hundred workers. So he decisively promoted new machines in the factory and cut a lot of workers. Of every 100 workers, only one worker is in charge of the machine, and the remaining ninety-nine are quit. In this way, the more machines, the more serious the unemployment, and the more people who starve to death in the city.
In the end, all the work was carried out by machines, and the urban residents fell into unemployment, poverty, and even starvation. Finally, one day there was a great famine. There was something in the market, but people didn’t have the money to buy it - they starved to tens of thousands of people within a few days. Many people were killed because of rebellion, and the rest left the city to escape. Finally, there are only teenagers and his parents left in the city. As a result, the father of the teenager committed suicide in desperation - the profit was not obtained from the machine, but was earned from the person; no one consumed, he would never have any profit.
This profound fable actually predicts the negative social impact of artificial intelligence under the logic of capital. Enterprises dominated by capital logic are trying to squeeze labor costs and maximize surplus value [10]. Artificial intelligence that helps to hire as little as possible is precisely a rare tool for achieving the above purposes. However, corporate profits depend on household consumption, while household consumption is based on labor income. From another perspective, the labor cost of the enterprise is actually the labor income of the employee. If all enterprises reduce the labor cost to the extreme, the total amount of labor income of the whole society will decrease, which will lead to sluggish consumption and make it difficult for enterprises to make profits. Enterprises that are difficult to make profits hope to rely on layoffs to get rid of the predicament, and the increase in the number of unemployed people will further reduce the total labor income of the whole society, further shrink consumption, and make enterprises more difficult to profit. This vicious circle is explained by Marxist political economy. Capitalist economic crisis. As Lenin said [11]: technological progress that increases labor productivity and social wealth, under the capitalist system, makes social inequality worse, and the rich and the poor become more disparate; so that the lives of more and more working people are not guaranteed. Unemployment and all kinds of suffering have intensified.
Objectively speaking, since the social welfare system was generally established in various capitalist countries after the Second World War, even if the middle and lower classes of the society still have to eat, the gap between the rich and the poor that is constantly expanding is a category of “relative povertyâ€. However, it is highly probable that artificial intelligence will push up the unemployment rate after the rapid elimination of low-end jobs, making the life of the lower middle class in society “not as good as ever†or even “prematurely ruinedâ€, thus creating a terrible “absolute impoverishmentâ€.
Historically, the absolute impoverishment of a large number of people is the direct cause of social unrest. The soil of previous peasant wars in our country's history is the absolute impoverishment of the peasant class. The Great Depression between 1929 and 1933 created the absolute impoverishment of the proletariat, enabling the Nazis to take power on the basis of populism. The impact of artificial intelligence on the social system may be no less than that of the Great Depression: artificial intelligence may not only make the lower middle class of the developed countries face absolute impoverishment, but also cause the developing countries to lose the advantage of low labor cost, and thus eventually destroy. Low-end manufacturing in developing countries. As a result, the lack of educated and large-scale population in developing countries will become a “junkless population†meaningless to the developed countries, and the entire world capitalist system will eventually fall into an unprecedented crisis.
The irony is that the enormous productivity created by capitalist society will magnify the defects of the capitalist system to the extreme. Technology companies such as Google and Tesla, which are eager to develop artificial intelligence, may not realize that their research and development results will become a time bomb that will lead to the collapse of the world capitalist system. After the great crisis and great collapse brought about by artificial intelligence, human beings will eventually build a more progressive social system on the ruins of capitalism to continue civilization. This is the path that Lenin pointed out - the transition from state capitalism to society. Doctrine.
Productivity determines the relationship of production. Under a more progressive social system, artificial intelligence will bring universal benefits to people. The progressive nature of the new social system will be reflected in the following aspects:
1. Deny the capital logic of capital as the center of social economic rights, eliminate the primary distribution method according to the distribution of production factors, and fully implement the distribution according to work. The distribution according to the factors of production will inevitably lead to the speed of capital accumulation far higher than the speed of wage growth. It will not create the two levels of differentiation between rich and poor at all times. Piketty’s Capital Theory of the 21st Century has elaborated on this law. Only the distribution according to work can guarantee the simultaneous growth of labor income and labor productivity, and solve the contradiction that leads to economic crisis caused by overproduction and insufficient consumption.
2. The State provides comprehensive and free education and vocational training to the public. The state will guide the transfer of labor among the various sectors of the national economy in an orderly manner. Individual citizens do not need to pay extra costs for acquiring new labor skills, so as to avoid the masses being unable to obtain employment because they cannot obtain labor skills.
3. Establish a reasonable social division of labor and transfer payment mechanism. Artificial intelligence will greatly increase labor productivity. People only need to spend a small amount of time on production to meet the material needs of life. At that time, people will re-do social division according to their talents and interests:
Thanks to artificial intelligence, people with higher intelligence levels can get rid of repetitive work and concentrate on creative work, such as engaging in scientific and technological research, or performing artistic creations such as literature, film, and drama. The base of those engaged in creative labor will greatly increase, making human science and art more than ever.
As mentioned earlier, artificial intelligence reduces the proportion of people in the working population who are directly engaged in productive labor, eliminating the need for many workers and farmers. What should the released labor force do? The most reasonable direction is to turn labor to the service and care of people and to satisfy people's emotional needs. People are the sum of social relations, and human-to-human communication is not destined to be replaced by artificial intelligence. Therefore, in the era of artificial intelligence popularization, there should be more service jobs such as psychological counselors, preschool teachers, rehabilitation doctors, and senior citizens. At that time, the office workers will not encounter the dilemma of “sudden business trips, no one at home and childrenâ€, and there will be professionally trained service personnel to come to work.
The October Revolution has gone through a hundred years, and Lenin’s thoughts illuminate the future. The great development of productivity brought by artificial intelligence will eventually lead to a new social system.
Employers in creative labor and service jobs do not directly produce material means of subsistence. Their sources of income actually depend on the state's transfer payment mechanism. In fact, there are some such transfer payment mechanisms. For example, the compensation of Chinese Academy of Sciences researchers and public school teachers is derived from fiscal revenue. However, the transfer payment under the new social system will be more common and more perfect, and form a reasonable distribution of surplus value within the whole society.
Many historical processes were actually triggered by technological advances, which became more apparent after the industrial revolution. For example, Germany achieved rapid industrialization in the late 19th century, and heavy industry technologies such as metallurgy, shipbuilding, and machining were among the highest in the world. This made the German rulers have the courage to launch two world wars. As a technological advance that can greatly increase labor productivity, artificial intelligence must trigger a series of major historical processes. The 21st century is destined to be a magnificent era, let us wait and see.
references:
[1] China News Network: http://
[2] Car home: http://m.autohome.com.cn/shuoke/511172.html? From=pc
[3]http://
[4]https://TIon/autonomous-driving/freightliner-inspiraTIon-truck.html
[5] Journal of Agricultural Machinery: http://? File_no=20110735&flag=1&journal_id=jcsam
[6] Xinhuanet: http://news.xinhuanet.com/tech/2016-11/28/c_1120002633.htm
[7] Wikipedia: https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/Expert System
[8] Sina Finance: http://finance.sina.cn/china/gncj/2016-10-07/detail-ifxwrhpn9249849.d.html? From=wap
[9] "The Long Tree": http://ertong.xiusha.com/waiguo/ykdzds.html
[10] MBA think tank encyclopedia: http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/capital logic
[11] "Lenin Selected Works": https://
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