The end of 2017 will come to an end. The achievement of China's photovoltaic industry in this year will be noted by the world. In the last month of 2017, we will look forward to the development prospects of the photovoltaic market in 2018. I still remember that early this year, after the unprecedented wave of rushing out of 2016, the industry was holding a desperate mentality. It is generally expected that it will be difficult to continue the 2016 grand event in 2017. However, in fact, in 2017, the photovoltaic industry once again achieved a leap-forward development and the achievements were even more impressive than in 2016. Will the photovoltaic industry in 2018 continue to be hot after consecutive breakthroughs? Under the pressure of subsidy declining and cheap Internet access, will 2018 be overwhelming and decline and usher in the industry's adjustment period?
Subsidy cuts down, pushing down component prices
According to the Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Adjusting the On-grid Price of Land-based Wind Power Benchmarking of Photovoltaic Power Generation, the on-grid price of photovoltaic benchmarking will be adjusted once a year according to the change in cost. Therefore, the photovoltaic power price in 2018 will surely usher in a downward adjustment again. Relatively speaking, people are more concerned about the magnitude of the downward adjustment. According to the forecast, the next time the rate of cut-off of PV benchmark price will increase, it should be between 0.15-0.2 yuan (For more details, click "Subsidy for Slope to Retreat from China's PV Industry?"). The difference from previous years is that the probability of distributed PV subsidies that have not been adjusted for four years will be reduced in 2018. In other words, photovoltaic subsidies will usher in a full reduction in 2018, in order to maintain the yield, the cost of photovoltaic power generation must be further reduced.
How to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation? From the perspective of cost reduction space, only the inverter components except for photovoltaic modules have room to fall, and the decline is limited. Other products, including brackets, electrical equipment, and cables, are relatively rigid, and this part of the cost is difficult to achieve a significant reduction. As a result, the heavy responsibility of system cost reduction still needs to be placed on the component side. Therefore, with the full reduction of subsidies, the price of PV modules will be further reduced in 2018. The decline in the cost of components depends mainly on process optimization and battery efficiency. In terms of process optimization, there has recently been a popularization of diamond wire cutting and other process optimization; in terms of battery efficiency, there is an expansion of PERC batteries, and there will be the development of new high-efficiency batteries such as N-type double-sided batteries. Therefore, overall, the fall in subsidies will largely cause the price of components to fall. From the current process improvement of components and improvement of battery efficiency, the industry has prepared for the withdrawal of subsidies.
Subsidy defaults are difficult to resolve and will be eased in 2018
Relatively speaking, photovoltaic power generation is an industry with a long investment cycle, so the financial flow of PV companies is particularly important. However, the existence of subsidy arrears has caused photovoltaic companies to bear additional financial pressure, and the debt ratio of photovoltaic companies is generally high. Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Institute, said recently that with the rapid expansion of wind power installations, the gap in new energy subsidies is increasing dramatically. In 2012, China’s “new energy subsidies†account has a surplus of 15 billion yuan. By 2016, It turned into a deficit of about 70 billion yuan. In 2017, China's PV installations increased significantly. In just nine months, it also brought about nearly 30 billion yuan in subsidies.
According to the policy, the subsidy for new energy should be compensated by the renewable energy surcharge collected in the sales price, but the subsidy obtained from the renewable energy surcharge obviously can not keep up with the growth of new energy generation. At present, it is necessary to completely solve the problem of subsidy arrears, only to accelerate the pace of development of new energy power generation and accelerate the exit of new energy subsidies. However, it will take several years for the subsidies to completely exit. If there is no new policy, subsidy default will always be a problem. Therefore, before this, the country still needs other policies to ease the pressure of subsidy arrears.
What is worth looking forward to is the green card trading policy. The National Energy Administration formally launched the green electricity certificate voluntary subscription on July 1. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation companies can apply for a green card through a renewable energy power generation project and sell it to the buyer. The price of the renewable energy is not higher than the corresponding power of the certificate. Additional fund subsidy amount. According to the Circular on Trial Implementation of Green Power Certificate Issuance and Voluntary Subscription of Renewable Energy issued by the National Energy Administration, according to the market subscription, since 2018, the renewable energy quota assessment and green electricity certificate will be promptly initiated to enforce transactions. . If the renewable energy quota assessment and the compulsory certification of green electricity certificates are started in 2018, selling green cards will be a viable option for companies that have subsidized subsidies and struggled with capital shortages. As the wind power and photovoltaic power generation companies sell renewable energy green power certificates, the corresponding power no longer enjoys the subsidies for the national renewable energy power surcharges. Therefore, the implementation of the green bond mandatory binding transaction will also relieve the pressure on subsidies to a certain extent.
In addition, the promotion of the distributed “wall-to-wall power sales†model is also expected to ease the pressure on subsidy default, because under the “wall-to-wall power sales†model, distributed photovoltaics have a higher rate of return and will enable users to access the Internet at parity. For enterprises that have a large number of terrestrial distributed photovoltaic power plants but have been trapped in subsidy arrears, they can obtain stable cash flow income through the “wall-to-wall power sales†model, which greatly improves the company’s capital operation. According to the plan, by June 30, 2018, the National Energy Administration will conduct a summary assessment of the pilot work of distributed power marketization, improve the relevant system, and determine the scope and time of promotion.
In general, in the face of subsidy defaults, the state is expecting to solve the problem through multiple measures. In 2018, other relevant policies will be introduced.
Non-PV costs are reduced and industry standards tend to improve
At present, although the photovoltaic industry is getting closer to the target of parity access to the Internet, it is still necessary to further reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation in order to achieve full-scale, affordable Internet access. However, while photovoltaic power generation significantly reduces costs through various process improvements and breakthroughs in battery efficiency, non-photovoltaic costs such as land and taxation have remained high, and this situation is expected to improve. In September 2017, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Reducing the Taxes and Fees Related to Enterprises in the Field of Renewable Energy (draft for solicitation of opinions). This policy releases the policy of “prolonging the 50% of the VAT rebates,†and “free Land acquisition tax and “stopping local government arbitrary charges†are good. In addition, the Ministry of Land and Resources, the State Council Office for Poverty Alleviation, and the National Energy Administration also issued the “Opinions on Supporting Poverty Alleviation by PV and Regulating Land for Photovoltaic Power Generation†in September 2017, again clarifying the use of land for photovoltaic power plant construction and relaxing it. The use of land for the benefit of the country in the construction of photovoltaics and poverty alleviation projects. If the above policies are well implemented, the non-PV costs will be significantly reduced.
In addition, due to the rapid development, various standards in the photovoltaic industry can hardly keep pace with the market. Without the constraints of standards and regulations, it is difficult for the industry to maintain a good development. At present, China's photovoltaic industry is in urgent need of a set of authoritative, wide coverage, industry standards system that can meet the industry's development. In response, the National Energy Administration, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Certification and Accreditation Administration issued the "Notice on Enhancing the Technical Specifications of Major Photovoltaic Products and Strengthening Supervision Work." By 2020, China will initially form a photovoltaic industry standard that is scientific, reasonable, technologically advanced, and coordinated. The system basically fulfills the full coverage of the general standards and key standards of the photovoltaic industry basics, and generally satisfies the development needs of the photovoltaic industry.
It is worth mentioning that 8 new standards will be implemented in 2018, and it may be able to solve the immediate problem of the lack of photovoltaic industry standards. On November 23, the National Energy Administration issued the No. 10 Announcement of 2017. According to the announcement, the National Energy Administration approved 204 industry standards. The implementation date is March 1, 2018, which includes 8 photovoltaic standards. The 8 criteria are:
As the industry shuffles, companies face life and death challenges
Although the country's policies are favourable, it is also an indisputable fact that market competition is becoming more intense. The industry is starting a new round of reshuffling, and companies are facing life and death challenges. First of all, for upstream companies, due to the strong rise of the single crystal industry in recent years, there has been a gradual substitution trend for polycrystalline silicon. It is predicted that as of 2016, the single crystal penetration rate will reach 27%, and the ratio is expected to exceed 35% in 2017. In the future, the single crystal permeability will reach more than 50%, becoming the main force of high-efficiency products. The rise of single crystals will inevitably squeeze the living space of the polycrystalline industry, and some polycrystalline companies may not be able to escape the fate of failure. In addition, it is understood that polycrystalline faucet GCL-Poly wire cutting polycrystalline transformation progress exceeded expectations, in November diamond wire products accounted for more than 90%, at the end of the rest of the B5 machine also completed transformation, is currently 100% Implement the next year's order. Diamond wire transformation brings higher cutting speed and lower silicon consumption. There is no doubt that the polysilicon manufacturers that cannot popularize the diamond wire cutting technology will gradually be eliminated.
For component manufacturers, due to the requirement of “cost reduction and efficiency increaseâ€, the future will be the world of high-efficiency components. Currently, efficient products such as PERC components, black silicon components, dual glass components, and double-sided components will become the darling of the market. Those with low efficiency and backward components will gradually withdraw from the stage. Without technical advantages in the future, enterprises that cannot produce high-efficiency components will be unable to keep pace with the development of the industry.
For downstream power station investors, due to the distributed outbreak, the focus of PV development has shifted to central and eastern China, and there are relatively high land costs in the central and eastern regions. Due to the scarcity of high-quality rooftop resources, the development of household photovoltaics may lead to a “grab roof†wave. Given that distributed PV is still in its infancy, it will be well received by the market because it has become famous and has taken the lead in brand image and good reputation.
summary
On the whole, despite the pressure of subsidy cuts, the industry itself is becoming more efficient, and non-PV costs are also expected to decline. Therefore, the downward adjustment of subsidies should not have an excessive impact on the industry. In addition, the implementation of industry standards and regulations will allow the market to mature. It is expected that distributed photovoltaics will continue to grow rapidly in 2018, and the proportion of new installed capacity is expected to exceed 50%. Based on this, the PV market in 2018 will continue to maintain growth. The inflection point of the photovoltaic industry may only come slowly.
Instruction Manual
1. Features
Clock display, 10 sets of adjustable timed power control, randomized power control, manual switch and optional DST setup.
2. First time charging
This timer contains a rechargeable battery. It is normal that the new/old model runs out of battery if it wasn`t being charged for a long period of time. In this case, the screen will not turn on.
To charge : simply plug the timer to a power outlet. The charging time should take at least 15 minutes.
If the screen doesn`t light up or displays garbled characters, simply reboot the system by pressing the [RESET" button.
3. Set clock
Hold [CLOCK" button and [WEEK" button to adjust week.
Hold [CLOCK" button and [HOUR" button to adjust hour.
Hold [CLOCK" button and [MINUTE" button to adjust minute.
Hold [CLOCK" button and [TIMER" button to select 12 hour/24 hour display.
Hold [CLOCK" button and [ON/AUTO/OFF" button to enable/disable DST (daylight-saving-time).
4. Set timer
Press [TIMER" button, select and set timer. Setting rotation : 1on, 1off, 2on, 2off, ...... , 10on, 10off.
Press [HOUR" button to set hour for timer.
Press [MIN" button to set minute for timer.
Press [WEEK" button to set weekday for timer. Multiple weekdays can be selected. ex: if selected [MO", the timer will only apply on every Monday; if selected [ MO, WE, FR", the timer will apply on every Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
Press [RES/RCL" button to cancel the selected on or off timer. The screen will show "-- -- : -- --" , the timer is canceled.
Press [RES/RCL" button again to reactivate the timer.
When timers are set, press [CLOCK" to quit timer setting and return to clock.
5. Random function
Press [RANDOM" button to activate random function, press again to cancel function.
System only runs random function when [AUTO" is on.
Random function will automatically start the timer from 2 to 32 minutes after the setting.
ex : if timer 1on was set to 19:30 with the random function on, the timer will activate randomly between 19:33 to 20:03.
if timer 1off was set to 23:00 with the random function on, the timer will activate randomly between 23:02 to 23:32.
To avoid overlapping, make sure to leave a minimum of 31 minutes gap between different sets of timer.
6. Manual control
Displayed features:
ON : socket turns on.
OFF : socket turns off.
AUTO : socket turns on/off automatically via timer.
Manual ON setting
Press [ON/AUTO/OFF" button to switch from [AUTO" to [ON".
This mode allows socket of the device to power up. Power indicator will light up.
Manual OFF setting
Press [ON/AUTO/OFF" button to switch from [AUTO" to [OFF".
This mode turns socket of the device off. Power indicators will turn off.
7. Electrical parameters
Operating voltage : 230VAC
Battery : NiMh 1.2V
Power consumption : < 0.9W
Response time : 1 minute
Power output : 230VAC/16A/3680W
Q&A
Q: Why won`t my timer turn on?
A: It`s out of battery, you can charge the timer by plugging onto any power outlet. Charge the device for at least 15 minutes. Then press [RESET " button to reset the device.
Q: Can I set seconds of the timer?
A: No, the smallest time unit is minute.
Q: Does my timer keeps old settings without being plugged onto a power outlet?
A: Yes, the timer has an internal battery, it allows the timer to save settings without a power outlet.
Q: Is the battery rechargeable?
A: Yes, the battery is rechargeable. We recommend to charge it for 4 hours so the battery is fully charged.
Q: Does the timer needs internet connection?
A: The timer does not need internet.
Q: Does the screen have back light function?
A: It doesn`t support back light.
Digital Timer Socket, Timing Switch Socket, Electronic Timer Socket, Timer Socket
NINGBO COWELL ELECTRONICS & TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD , https://www.cowellsockets.com